The Taiwan Institute for Economic Research (TIER) announced that despite recent economic setbacks, it is still possible for the year’s overall economic growth rate to return to over 3%.
TIER researchers announced Monday that the composite indicators for three major industries – manufacturing, service, and construction – had continued a decline for three or more consecutive months.
Business Development and Research Center Director Sun Ming-te (孫明德) recalled that U.S. President Trump’s tariffs were originally delayed 90 days beginning April 9, before a settlement deal with China was reached on May 12. Further adding to the confusion, the United States’ threatened tariff war with the European Union also seems to be postponed until early July, according to Sun. Even with the situation changing so rapidly, Sun predicts the economic effect will not be as significant as once anticipated.
Sun says that as the U.S. dollar seems to have stabilized, more attention should be paid to U.S. bonds in the second quarter of the year, while still keeping an eye on stocks and the foreign exchange.
TIER President Dr. Chang Chien-yi (張建一) also said that Taiwan’s other industries, including semiconductors, are actually looking good in terms of performance. Economic growth in the second half of the year will depend in part on the potential weakening of the “Trump effect.” However, coupled with assistance from the government’s NT$410 billion (US$13.7 billion) special budget injection, the year’s economic growth rate could still return to above 3%.