On Thursday, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) released its updated economic growth forecast for 2024, which has been increased to 4.03%. This revision is attributed to the robust performance in the high-tech sector. The institute reported strong growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with rates of 6.6%, 5.1%, and 4.0% respectively, indicating a trend of sustained economic expansion.
Looking ahead to 2025, TIER projects a more modest growth rate of 3.15%, representing a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from 2024. While major economies like the United States and China face challenges in consumption and investment, the institute expects improved performance from Europe and Japan. Additionally, stronger growth is anticipated in emerging markets across Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
TIER President Chang Chien-yi (張建一) expressed concerns about the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The institute warns that Trump’s policies could significantly affect global trade dynamics. This may include potential tariff increases of up to 20% on trading partners and 60% on Chinese imports. Other possible policy changes could involve corporate tax reductions, elimination of climate-related subsidies, and major changes in foreign policy and defense spending, all of which could substantially impact Taiwan’s trade performance.