In a recent article published by the Brookings Institution on Monday, Richard Bush, former chair of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), highlighted China's military and non-military threats against Taiwan as significant challenges to the U.S.-Taiwan security partnership and U.S. interests in East Asia. As a nonresident senior fellow of the institution, Bush emphasized the need for careful handling of this complex relationship by the next U.S. president.
Bush outlined seven aspects of Taiwan's vulnerability that impact the U.S.-Taiwan security partnership. He noted that despite longstanding U.S. encouragement, Taiwan's defense budget has only slightly increased from 11% to 12% of total government expenditure between 2013 and 2022. In contrast, education and social welfare accounted for 45.6% of the total budget in 2022.
The article stressed the importance of Taiwan, particularly the DPP government, to clearly demonstrate that it does not intend to pursue independence. Bush commended former President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) approach of not yielding to Chinese pressure and not acting provocatively despite U.S. support, suggesting it as a model for future administrations.
Regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Bush predicted that China would continue its non-military coercion against Taiwan and test U.S. responses in East Asia. He suggested that a Harris administration might continue Biden’s policies, while a Trump administration could lead to inconsistent and chaotic approaches, similar to his first term.