US experts have begun considering possible developments in the future of cross-strait relations… that’s in light of the ruling Kuomintang’s (KMT) massive defeat in Taiwan’s recent municipal elections. Some commentators say the recent elections are an indication of how voters will lean in the 2016 presidential election.
Under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT has forged closer ties with Mainland China. However, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which made huge gains in the elections, is wary of the KMT’s China-leaning position.
The former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Richard Bush, says it’s still difficult to gauge how the recent elections will affect cross-strait ties. He said that it is still too early to determine what decisions the DPP and its Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen will make in the 13 months between now and the presidential election.
Another analyst who weighed in on the elections, is Alan Romberg, who is with the Stimson Center, a public policy think tank. Romberg says he believes that Beijing will make it clear to the DPP that there will be consequences if the party does not support a “One China Policy”.
Meanwhile, Bonnie Glaser, a China expert with the Center for International and Strategic studies does not believe that China will alter its policy toward Taiwan in the short term. She says that the Ma administration’s conciliatory posture towards China will not change course during the remainder of his term in office. However, she said that if the DPP does not accept some form of the “One China Policy”, China will implement policies to prevent a DPP victory in the presidential election.